Fundamental Facts on Florian’s Failures
Posted: October 28, 2011 Filed under: Uncategorized Leave a commentFightMetric statistics behind Kenny Florian’s record and the success of current UFC Champions
by Mr. Fundamental
Jose Aldo defeats Kenny Florian at UFC 136 - from heavy.com
The Ultimate Fighting Championship was originally designed to determine the best form of martial arts, and Brazilian jiu-jitsu was, undoubtedly, the clear winner. Using never-seen-before grappling techniques, Royce Gracie earned submission victories in his first eleven fights and was crowned the winner of the first, second, and fourth UFC tournaments (having pulled out of the third for medical reasons). In his very first fight, his opponent, boxer Art Jimmerson, who was wearing a single boxing glove at the time, actually tapped out simply because Gracie earned a mounted position.
Royce Gracie helped make mixed martial arts what it is today, and inspired generations of fighters by introducing the world to Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Kenny Florian was one of them, beginning as a student of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, then going on to have one of the more intriguing MMA careers in the sport. After making it to the finals of The Ultimate Fighter reality show, Florian became the only UFC fighter to compete in four different weight classes, beginning as a Middleweight and fighting most recently as a Featherweight. While fighters are lucky to earn a single UFC title shot, Kenny has fought for a UFC title on three different occasions, in two different weight classes.
But despite repeatedly proving that he’s worthy to compete with MMA’s elite, Ken-Flo has been unable to become one of the best himself. In fact, all five of his losses have occurred during the most important fights of his career. He not only lost in the TUF championship, but went on to lose all three of his title bouts as well as a number one contender eliminator in which he failed to earn a third shot at the lightweight belt.
Meanwhile, there have been fighters who not only became champions in the UFC, but have also remained there for an extended period of time. Anderson Silva, Georges St. Pierre, Jon Jones, and Jose Aldo are at the top of both their respective weight classes and pound-for-pound rankings thanks to a string of impressive victories against some of the best fighters in the world (including Kenny Florian). Anderson Silva is undefeated in 13 fights since joining the UFC while Jose Aldo is has yet to lose in all ten of his professional fights in the WEC/UFC. The lone blemish on Jon Jones’s record was the result of a disqualification in a fight he otherwise dominated. And since his shocking upset loss to Matt Serra at UFC 69, GSP has run off nine consecutive victories to regain and defend the Welterweight title. So what makes these champions different from Kenny Florian?
I went to FightMetric to see what the statistics on Kenny Florian and the four UFC champions show. FightMetric tracks strikes, takedowns, and submissions both attempted and completed for UFC bouts and fighters. FightMetric also differentiates “Significant” strikes from Total strikes, which they define as “all strikes at distance and power strikes in the clinch and on the ground.” This designation is helpful because it separates strikes that are generally more impactful to the outcome of a fight. A review of the stats on several fighters reveals some striking results (pun intended), including key correlations between the UFC’s elite.
According to FightMetric, all four champions dominate the striking category consistently, both in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. In their UFC/WEC careers, Jon Jones and Jose Aldo have never landed fewer significant strikes than an opponent in any match, or done so at a lower rate versus significant strikes attempted. GSP has been equally successful in his last nine fights, and Anderson Silva failed to outstrike an opponent just once in his UFC career versus Chael Sonnen last year.
Each champion has similar success in the takedown department. While each of them utilizes takedowns to varying degrees, they all have been able to complete the majority of the takedowns they do attempt as well as prevent most takedown attempts from their opponents. At one end, Anderson Silva has attempted just four takedowns in 14 UFC bouts, while at the other, GSP has attempted 61 in his last nine fights alone. However, Silva has completed three of his attempts and GSP, 47 of his, for a success rate of 75% and 77% respectively. Silva is the only one of the four champions to give up more takedowns thans he’s completed, however he’s held opponents to a minor 20% success rate. GSP has been even more impressive, allowing only Josh Koscheck a single takedown in each of their two fights, despite 24 attempts by Kos and St. Pierre’s other seven opponents (8%).
Aldo and Jones have been only slightly less effective in completing takedowns, but have shown equally high levels of takedown defense. Aldo is 6 for 10 (60%) but held opponents to 3 takedowns in 48 attempts (6%), while Jones is 20 for 31 (65%) and has yet to be taken down in over 11 career attempts.
If we use the statistical correlations from these four champions as a blueprint for success in the UFC, Kenny Florian’s numbers reveal some very clear issues by comparison. Based on what the champions have accomplished, it stands to reason that fighters who cannot outstrike opponents or control takedowns will not fare well. Florian’s stats show that, in his biggest fights, he has been unable to do either.
In his wins, Florian displayed similar dominance to the champions previously examined. He landed more than double the number of significant strikes as his opponents, and did so with greater effectiveness, landing 42% of them to his opponents’ 26%. He also more than tripled opponents in takedowns, landing 25 of 46 (54%) to his opponents’ 7 of 29 (24%). But as effective as he was in his wins, he was even more ineffective in his losses. The opponents who defeated Florian more than doubled him in significant strikes landed and were successful in over half the ones they attempted. At the same time he was held to a single takedown in 35 attempts (3%) while allowing 15 of 25 from opponents (60%).
It seems clear that striking and takedowns are definite keys to success. However, there doesn’t seem to be a correlation between the submission statistics of the champions. Jose Aldo has a single submission attempt in his career, and GSP hasn’t finished an opponent by submission in his last nine fights. Although Silva and Jones have utilized submissions, the majority of their wins have come by other means. Kenny Florian, however, leans heavily on his Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, as evidenced by the fact that 8 of his 12 victories have come by way of submission.
For further comparison, I examined the statistics of other submission fighters, and found them to have the same issues as Kenny Florian. Demian Maia and Jake Shields, for instance, have earned recent title shots but failed to capture a title. Maia has three losses in his career, and, like Florian, performed worse at striking and takedowns than opponents in each of those fights despite dominating both categories in his wins. In fact, during Maia’s losses, he has been held without a single takedown in 20 attempts. Jake Shields’ statistics are even more concerning. After a string of eight victories in EliteXC, Strikeforce then the UFC, Shields fell in his title fight with GSP, then again in his next fight with Jake Ellenberger. As expected, Shields was bested in the striking and takedown categories during those losses. But the statistics for his eight previous wins show that, while he landed more significant strikes and takedowns, the opponents he defeated actually averaged better success rates for both categories, even though they lost.
I can understand that submission specialists would struggle with striking. However, it’s surprising that Florian, Maia, and Shields were all out-wrestled given the reliance of grapplers on taking fights to the ground. All three are considered among the top Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in the sport, yet only Florian had a single takedown in their ten combined losses. For this reason, it appears that Florian’s base may actually be to blame for his shortcomings in big fights, as high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu does not appear to translate to high-level wrestling or takedown ability.
The ability for wrestling to control fights is one of the reasons wrestling is considered by many to be the best base for mixed martial arts. In the case of each champion I examined, they are able to use wrestling to keep fights where they are most comfortable and then use striking to overcome opponents. This can be on the feet, where Silva and Aldo usually prefer to keep fights, or in a dominant position on the ground, where GSP often takes fights. When submission-style fighters like Florian can’t achieve takedowns, especially against the best fighters in the sport, they are left out of their element, and at a disadvantage. Following UFC 118, Florian actually blamed his loss to Gray Maynard specifically on wrestling and made plans to improve it. Although he earned a single takedown against Jose Aldo – an improvement from the zero he completed against Maynard – it looks like more improvements are still needed.
This is not to say that mixed martial artists shouldn’t train jiu-jitsu; submissions are undoubtedly valuable under the right circumstances. Jiu-jitsu certainly bailed Anderson Silva out of a fight that he was otherwise losing badly to Chael Sonnen, and Jon Jones used a rear-naked choke to finish Rampage Jackson in a fight that he was already dominating with better stand-up and wrestling. Mixed martial artists should have training in all facets of the sport. But, the statistics show that if Kenny Florian wants to be one of the best, he has to improve his wrestling and striking, even if it’s at the expense of advancing his submission skills.
My first thought after writing this post was how much the sport seems to have changed since the days of Royce Gracie. From what I remembered about Gracie’s fights, his striking was a non-factor and he dominated solely because of his jiu-jitsu. Now, considering all the FightMetric stats I viewed, jiu-jitsu is no longer the dominant martial art form it once was.
Out of curiosity, I pulled the FightMetric stats on Gracie’s first eleven fights. Like the champions of today, he took the fight where he was most comfortable – the ground – earning more takedowns than his opponents as well as succumbing to 3 takedowns from opponents. But, in addition, it turns out that over the course of those eleven fights he actually landed more significant strikes than his opponents in all but three fights, and only landed a lower percentage of significant strikes in just two of them. Yes, Royce Gracie not only out-wrestled and out-grappled his first eleven opponents, but on the whole, he also out did them in striking.
As much as MMA has evolved, perhaps the formula for success hasn’t changed as much as I thought. Perhaps Kenny Florian could learn something from Royce Gracie.
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